129765921291456250_34Dr Stephen Roach, Chairman: China's economy will never be hard landing
According to Xinhua, Beijing, March 17 the "China Development Forum 2012" 17th at the annual meeting held in Beijing.
At the annual meeting of Chinese and foreign experts and scholars in that "Twelve-Five" period, China's economic fundamentals will not be a big change, but it must promote the readjustment of the industrial structure. "China's economic restructuring will create huge demand potential and huge market, China's economic development fundamentalsChanges do not occur, and have full confidence in China's future economic development.
"Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, the central financial and economic leading Group Office of the Deputy Director Liu crane said. Liu He said, characteristics of Chinese industrial might in the future is the decline in the share of manufacturing industries in the national economy, proportion greater promotion of the service sector. Manufacturing internal will to produce appropriate concentration and specialization, deepeningCharacteristics of supply chain adjustment, low carbon green growth will be encouraged, new industries and speed up development, production capacity to meet domestic demand for greater room for development. United States Yale University Professor, Morgan Stanley (Asia) non-Executive Chairman Dr Stephen Roach, Chairman believes that China's economy will never "hard landing". World is becoming more and more unbalanced right now, especially over the past 30 years,Including the United States, Europe, Japan and China. 70% global consumption in the developed countries, but this will not continue to grow.
Therefore, relies on foreign demand growth is needed for China to wake up time, rebalancing the work needs to be done. Professor, College of Economics and management, Tsinghua University Li daokui (micro-blogging) believes that short-term growth in China is no big problem, but macroeconomic policies must helpThe adjustment of economic structure.
Is Dr Stephen Roach, Chairman of the following statement of record: Dr Stephen Roach, Chairman: thank you-far Secretary General, is very pleased to be able to come back, this is my 12th China Forum, I am very honoured to be able to join you, from founding has been joined at the beginning of the Summit. I would like to talk about one aspect of the topic, the prospects for worldwide, ChinaIs also very strong. About five years ago, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao made a point of conclusion, said that China's growth is unsustainable, unbalanced, unstable, meaning that global and China need to better balance
tera gold, to avoid a serious instability occurs. We are living in an age of crisis may occur at any time, lists 11 of the past 30 yearsCrisis, crisis of the past if you look at it carefully, all were caused by imbalances, whether by regulatory policies, or in many cases are in the so-called crises of imbalance also occurred under the market economy system. In the context of such an unbalanced system, there will be overall current account deficits and surpluses. Now you can take a look at the global current account imbalances, only1% not to, but the crisis appears before the surge, probably about stability in the overall global drop in, so we expect over the next five years of global current account imbalances, added together is probably the 4% that is surplus and deficit levels. Global now is basically to United States-centric economic system
tera gold, of course, under such a picture, The largest is the United States economy, say United States consumers themselves are also a large number of living beyond its means, as well as situations of imbalance. I see the United States consumption share of GDP, today has been to the United States GDP of 71%, is the level of 65% in the past. It is not because the actual revenue growth and support, because the last two bubbles provide liquidityAs a result of. United States consumer is very smart, when in the past he used to have cut spending, you can see the United States overall changes in consumer spending, which means that overall supply and demand situation in the world, United States consumers in the past 16-quarter average growth rate of only 0.5%, of course I did not have time to talk about the euro, but did not say in the euro zone,I would skips. Look at Japan, Japan provided a textbook of the developed world, in the last century 90 's bubble burst.
Japan's debt proportion of GDP reached a serious imbalance than 200%, still growing, so reminds us of the risks in the developed world is likely as Japan into irreversible situations. To see Asia, As Premier Wen Jiabao of China economy five years ago moved to wake up, he said that the Chinese economy is unstable, unbalanced
tera power leveling, uncoordinated and unsustainable, he described the crisis this word is actually appropriate. So, for China, recognized that unsustainable growth component of what brought about? Everyone is talking about China's growth pattern in the past mainly depends onExternal demand is mainly demand in the developed world, so just a dependency that is not sustainable in the future, does not allow China to reach the historical growth trend, China will have to rely on external demand to promote more towards domestic demand driven. For China, the critical issue is the Organization of the economic. 12 five-including social security, wagesAnd other content made it clear that such objectives, implementation steps, however it is quite slow, 12 enacted a five-year, we would like to see some progress. China will have what is called a hard landing to say? I think never have, and some people will talk about, maybe they are pessimistic, but I think they are all wrong.For China, the biggest risk is it? United States now these politicians a new round wave of accusations against China, when his unemployment problem, the sound growing, now is a difficult time of development, us and China on many issues, but the United States also requires its own to solve many problems, one of the main problems is to look atLow us savings rate problem, especially in the huge current account and trade deficits. We all have seen before, United States and China are also has a trade deficit, but it is also and 87 other countries around the world also has a trade deficit because we save money save enough, we cannot blame China has done precisely the opposite thing in this regard. So I'm hereReferring to the problem is global rebalancing. World is becoming more and more unbalanced right now, especially over the past 30 years. In the United States, Europe, Japan and China are like that. Global consumption of 70% takes place in the developed countries, but it will not continue to grow. Relies on foreign demand growth in China for China is to awaken the time, rebalancing of the work now. ThisIs my information, thank you.
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