129742939364843750_375Zhang Ming in the previous column, 2012 I expect Chinese macro-economic trends, key findings include: first, the 2012 economy is not a hard landing in China, there will not be too high inflation. GDP growth at around 8.5%, CPI growth in 3.5%; the second, in 2012, the Chinese Government will gradually ease monetary policy, is the principal means to reduce methodReserve and maintain a higher Yuan credit increments, interest rate cuts less likely; third 2012 about appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar may 3%. Repeat the above forecasts, because of China's macro economy is closely related to judgment and we'll talk about the topic. Since this is the investor's column, our readers have thought about itQuestion: in 2012, what can we buy? Because the Chinese Government is still out with a degree of capital account controls, most Chinese investors
rs items for sale, to be at the mercy of their portfolios around the world is not an easy task. Of course, investors through a number of provider of QDII (qualified domestic institutional investors) indirect investments in foreign capitalMarkets. But in recent years, frequent market turmoil caused by the global financial crisis, as well as the 2010 move to restart the Renminbi against the dollar since the average annual gains of about 5%, resulting in yields a meagre accounts of QDII products in Renminbi.
Therefore, this column focusing mainly on the domestic market of the investment options. Deposit the money is not worth the current currency1-year time deposit interest rate of 3.5% January 2011 CPI y/y growth rate is 4.5%, which means that the real deposit rate-1%. In fact, February 2010, real deposit rates have been negative for two consecutive years. Negative deposit is a deposit to move (that is, savers moving funds from bank deposits to otherTypes of assets), and the stock market in China and in recent years one of the major causes of the housing bubble. However, negative savings rate does not necessarily have to mean not worth money in the Bank, because from a sense of investment, even more important is the relative yield. 2011, for example, the Shanghai composite index fell by about 22%, this means that in 2011 significantly higher than yields on bank deposit investmentYield on the stock index fund. Similarly, in 2012, the domestic inflation down, housing prices and the stock market slumped, under the background of global market turmoil, choose to put their money in the Bank, can be very wise. After all, at a time when asset prices are likely to continue to decline, cash purchases are very rational choice. But the fact that negative real deposit rates remained,Description part of the funds invested in other assets, on the premise of risk control to increase the overall return on investment is still very necessary. People 2011 global financial turmoil investment banking products market is quite popular. Puyi wealth the latest data shows 2011 Bank financing products issued more than $ 15 trillion, is 2010 issued more than twice the size. As banking products provide much higher yields than time deposit rate in the same period, investors flock to naturally do not hard to understand. However, I believe that the current banking products market has formed a certain bubbles, 2012 may be the year of adjustment. Reason is that most of the underlying assets behind the banking products,Not provide loans to local government investment and financing platform, is to provide loans to real estate developers, and currently both types of subjects are faced with greater financial risk. The former comes from the people's Bank of China Banking Regulatory Commission and management of loans to local investment and financing platform, and some completed infrastructure investment potential of low yields, which comes from the Chinese Government's regulation of the real estate industry continues�� Once the local investment and financing platform with real estate developer cannot obtain sufficient profit, payment of these financial products, there may be problems.
Therefore, 2012 investors investment banking financial products should be very cautious. Gold is the investment of a love-hate. 2011 gold price certainly took a roller coaster in the world. International gold prices from each at the start of the AngloDepartments and more than 1300 dollars once touched up to 8 September 1900 dollars per ounce, then fell back to more than 1500 dollars per ounce at the end. By the end of 2011, clearly fall in gold prices, coupled with the 2012 global financial markets remain volatile, gold seemed to remain attractive. However, the gold price has three important factors: Global GoldInto turmoil, inflation pressure and the dollar strength. In 2012, global financial markets remain volatile, which is expected to push up the price of gold. But at the same time the global decline of inflation pressure, strength in the dollar exchange rate still bucking, that suppressing the price of gold rose. International situation of uncertainty means that the holdings of a large number of gold is a high risk in early 2012, and yield volatilityChoice.
Right to increase its stake in gold, perhaps should fund investment, gradual, slow, overweight gold and pipe it to gold price fluctuations, I broke down and positions remain firm. In the current market environment, continued to purchase real estate needs courage. For now, government leaders in China prior to the general election, for the real estate industry macro control policies will not be fully relaxed. ToThe three quarter less in the 2012, nationwide housing turnover shrinking and falling prices will continue. However, if we believe that China's urbanization process can continue for a long time, in education, medical treatment and other public product supply in China without fundamental change in the pattern of serious imbalances in the short term, level of monetization of the economy remains unabated in China, ChinaHouse, not full liberalization of the capital account in the short term, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai House prices crash (more than or 30%) is only a distant dream. This means that despite the 2012 House prices fell, but the extent of the decline can be quite limited. 2008 stock market bear for a period of time, tier level of drop in house prices can be used as a parameterAccording to.
Perhaps the second half of 2012, China's leaders at the General, will create a time window of the first-tier cities property purchased. On the stock market remains confident that the last, I still want to defy the table configuration. In all types of asset, I have confidence in the performance of the stock market in 2012. A very important reason for this is that in the Chinese year of the Government General, seniorDo not want to see all of the declines in asset prices. Poor Chinese stock market performance in the past two years, and the situation of China's strong economic growth, and humiliating the Chinese Government. The so-called rogue force
cheap runescape items, take new securities and Futures Commission Chairman duty for Dongfeng, the Government may be in for (reducing new financing's scope)
runescape items for sale, seek (local insurance fund) and liquidity (ease monetary policy)Provide multifaceted support. In addition, China's a-share stock valuations are attractive, whether from the earnings or book, you can say now is time China stock cheapest ever. At the same time, under the background of macro-control in the real estate market, being squeezed out of money could flow into the stock market. Current stocks are still in shock, a new rising trendIs not forming. In this context, investors were mainly held defensive stocks (such as food, retail, medical, etc) and ultra-low stock valuation (such as banking, real estate, etc).
Remember, when most people are disappointed the market, amid increasingly bleak market Outlook, it may be the best market opportunity. In conclusion, I believe that in 2012, most at risk of investmentsCan be a specific banking product, perhaps the most attractive investment stock (including defense in stock index futures, stock and low valuations stocks). For gold investors should be cautious, perhaps the end of 2012 is the starting window of the first-tier cities property. Of course, cash purchases are also a good choice. Gold statement online: online reprint of the above goldCapacity, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
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